Hurricane Season Cancellations: What DR Rentals Really Lose

Take a $250,000 two-bedroom condo in Las Terrenas that grosses $19,000 a year on Airbnb. Its roughly $9,200 in annual carrying costs are due whether a storm forms or not. Now suppose a tropical storm never makes landfall but still knocks about $2,000 of September bookings off the calendar. The owner's pre-tax profit falls by more than a quarter. In most years, that's the hurricane-season problem: smaller than buyers fear, but bigger than the listing brochure lets on.

01How Much Revenue Do DR Vacation Rentals Lose From June to November?

Most DR vacation rentals lose very little of their June–November income to hurricane cancellations. The bigger gap is ordinary low-season demand. A standard Las Terrenas 2BR grosses $18–20K a year (Evalúa market model, May 2026). Against that, a storm-scare cancellation wave costs an estimated $1,000–$3,000. A direct hit that forces a closure can wipe out a full year's profit.

Those are two different losses, and pro formas tend to blur them.

The first is the seasonal trough. It's predictable and it repeats every year. Demand from North America and Europe drops after Easter, picks up again in July and August for European and diaspora summer holidays, and then slumps from September to early November. None of that has anything to do with weather.

The second is the storm shock. It's episodic. A forecast cone over Hispaniola sets off cancellations, stops new bookings and sometimes shuts the property for a week or two.

02When Does the Low Season Actually Bite on Each Coast?

On every coast, September and October are the weakest months. What differs between markets is how much storm exposure comes with that trough. The table below sets the annual averages from our model next to each market's exposure profile.

How much of the year's income falls between June and November? We haven't published a measured monthly series. As an indicative range, though, a north-coast condo typically earns somewhere around 30–40% of its annual gross in those six months. On $19,000, that's roughly $5,700–$7,600. Most of it comes in July and August, and September–October contribute very little.

That pattern matters for the hurricane question. Storm activity peaks during the months when there's the least revenue to lose. A September cancellation wave mostly hits bookings that were already thin.

Santo Domingo is the exception to the beach-town pattern, because its guests come for work and family as much as leisure. If smoothing out income matters more to you than headline revenue, read our comparison of Santo Domingo's yield against beach towns.

03What Does a Hurricane Cancellation Wave Actually Cost?

When a storm only threatens and doesn't hit, the loss is mostly bookings that never happen, not refunds. Here's how a typical scare unfolds:

1. The forecast cone appears. About five to seven days out, when a system's projected track crosses Hispaniola, guests with arrivals in that window start cancelling. Booking platforms run extraordinary-event policies that can refund guests no matter which cancellation policy the host chose, especially once authorities declare an emergency. Check the platform's current terms, because the conditions change.
2. Booking pace freezes. This part is usually bigger and gets less attention. Inquiries for the following two to four weeks dry up while international news shows the Caribbean under a storm graphic, even when the track ends up passing 300 km (about 190 miles) away.
3. Official alerts land. Watches and warnings from ONAMET, the Dominican meteorological office, and travel alerts from the US Embassy in Santo Domingo, give nervous guests a documented reason to cancel and airlines a reason to waive change fees.

For a Las Terrenas 2BR in September, a typical scare means a few lost reservations and a dead fortnight of new bookings. We estimate the cost at $1,000–$3,000 of gross revenue, depending on whether it overlaps a holiday week. It's an estimate, not a measured median. It's also a rounding error next to a single cancelled week at Christmas.

A direct hit is different. Then the costs are a closure of one to several weeks, repairs, the insurance deductible, and possibly a slow rebooking period while photos of storm damage stay online.

04Worked Example: Three Hurricane Seasons, One Las Terrenas Condo

The case below is a $250,000 resale 2BR in central Las Terrenas, bought without CONFOTUR, so closing costs are about 5% ($12,500). Carrying costs follow Evalúa's canonical model:

• HOA: $300/month, so $3,600 a year
• Insurance: $1,200
• IPI: 1% × ($250,000 − $182,000) = $680
• Maintenance: 1% of value, so $2,500
• Owner-period utilities: around $1,200

That totals $9,180 a year. Management (20%) and the platform fee (3%) come out of gross rent. Cleaning fees and rental-period utilities are paid by guests, so they're excluded.

The storm-scare year's $2,000 gross loss and the damage year's $4,000 gross loss and $2,500 deductible are illustrative estimates. They aren't measured outcomes.

A few observations from the table.

One bad season out of five costs about 20% of five-year operating profit. It doesn't wipe out the investment.

The yields are thin before tax in every scenario. That isn't caused by hurricanes. It's what a $19,000 gross looks like once a $300/month HOA and honest maintenance are deducted. Our piece on how occupancy assumptions destroy Airbnb pro formas explains why agency projections of $40K make this look much better than it is.

Taxes come on top. These figures are before income tax. For 2026, individuals pay the progressive 0–25% scale on net rental income after an annual exemption of roughly RD$416K (~$6,700). Companies (SRL/EIRL) pay a flat 27%. Ley 30-26 phases in tax changes from 2027, so confirm the current rate with your own Dominican attorney.

Appreciation isn't modelled here. Treat it as upside rather than as the thing that rescues a weak rental case.

To test your own numbers, run them through our Rental Income Calculator with a deliberately bad September.

05Is Samaná Safer Than Punta Cana in Hurricane Season?

Yes, on exposure. The Samaná peninsula's protected north-coast position has historically taken fewer direct hurricane impacts than Punta Cana, whose eastern tip faces the Atlantic storm tracks. In our worked example, that makes the "damage year" column less likely in Las Terrenas than in Bávaro.

The absolute numbers point the other way. A Punta Cana unit grossing $30–35K has more revenue at risk in a scare. It also has a much deeper pool of all-inclusive and resort-adjacent demand, so it refills its calendar faster afterwards. Las Terrenas risks less money but has fewer guests to replace the ones who cancel.

Wind isn't the only storm risk. Heavy rain and storm surge matter too. Before you buy near the water in Samaná, read our guide to flood zones and setback maps. A ground-floor unit beside a river mouth carries a different risk from a hillside condo, even within one neighbourhood.

06Risk Factors: What Would Make These Numbers Worse?

These are specific conditions you can watch for, not vague worries:

• Shrinking air access. El Catey airport handled about 93,000 passengers in 2025. That's down 8.4% on 2024 and the third straight annual decline. Fewer seats make it harder to refill a cleared calendar. If the decline continues through the next annual report, plan for a deeper Las Terrenas low season.
• Back-to-back named storms affecting the north coast. One scare in a season fits our model. If ONAMET issues watches for Samaná province twice in the same September–October window, use the damage-year column, not the scare column.
• Insurance repricing. Our model assumes $900–$1,800 a year. If your renewal quote comes in above that range, or the windstorm deductible switches from a flat amount to a percentage of insured value, rerun the carrying costs before deciding to keep the unit.
• Tourism-wide shocks. The DR tourism board reported 11.7 million visitors in 2025. The World Bank's country data shows how heavily the wider economy relies on that flow. A sustained fall in national arrivals would deepen every low season, storm or no storm.

07How Can Owners Cut Hurricane-Season Losses?

The most effective step is to treat September–October as its own business, not as empty weeks.

• Sell monthly stays in the trough. Remote workers and long-stay visitors will often book 30-plus days at a discount. A month at 60% of the nightly rate is better than three lost weekends. Cabarete owners already do this well.
• Use the dead weeks for maintenance. Plan repainting, AC servicing and shutter checks for late September so the work doesn't cost you bookable nights.
• Keep six months of carrying costs in reserve. On the example, that's about $4,600 held in the bank, so one bad season doesn't push you into a distressed sale.
• Read the management contract's storm clause. Who installs shutters, who photographs the property before and after, and is there an extra charge for storm prep? Managing from abroad only works if this is written down before June 1.
• Pick a moderate cancellation policy, not a strict one. In a declared event, a strict policy rarely survives the platform's override, and the stricter terms put off guests in the other 46 weeks of the year.

08Frequently Asked Questions

Do Airbnb guests get refunds if a hurricane hits the Dominican Republic?

Often, yes. Platforms run extraordinary-event policies that can refund guests whatever cancellation policy the host chose, especially after an official emergency declaration. Coverage depends on the platform's terms at the time, so check them each season rather than relying on your listing's policy.

What months are hurricane season in the Dominican Republic?

The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30. Activity near Hispaniola usually peaks from August to October. That overlaps with the rental low season of September to early November, which limits how much revenue a storm can take.

Should I budget a hurricane discount into my rental projections?

Not every year. Evalúa's occupancy averages are trailing-12-month figures that already include past storm seasons. A better approach is to model a calm year plus one stress year in five, as in the worked example above.

Is a Las Terrenas rental riskier than Punta Cana in hurricane season?

On storm exposure it's less risky. The north coast has historically seen fewer direct impacts than Punta Cana's east-facing coast. Las Terrenas also has thinner demand, so a cleared calendar takes longer to refill.

Does property insurance cover lost bookings after a storm?

Standard DR property policies cover physical damage, subject to a windstorm deductible. Lost rental income is usually a separate add-on, if it's offered at all. Ask your insurer in writing whether loss-of-rent cover exists and what triggers it.

This article is general information, not tax, legal or insurance advice. Confirm tax treatment with a Dominican attorney and policy terms with your insurer.

09The Real Hurricane-Season Risk Is in the Spreadsheet

Buyers worry about the storm, and in most years the storm costs them a few thousand dollars in the weakest months of the calendar. The bigger risk is a pro forma that assumes 70% occupancy, ignores the September trough and leaves no reserve. Under those assumptions, a single scare looks like a crisis. Using the real averages, the same year is manageable. Check any listing's revenue claims against the Evalúa Property Analyzer before you assume the season will pay for itself, and see more worked cases in our investment guides.